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One thing I haven't seen mentioned here is quarterly estimated tax payments. If you're making significant profits on Kalshi (like the original poster's $8,400), you might need to make quarterly estimated payments to avoid underpayment penalties. Since prediction market earnings are treated as "other income" and taxed at ordinary rates, they're not subject to withholding like W-2 wages. The IRS expects you to pay as you go throughout the year, not just when you file your return. If your Kalshi profits plus other income mean you'll owe more than $1,000 in taxes for the year, you should probably be making quarterly payments. This caught me off guard my first profitable year - I owed a $180 underpayment penalty even though I paid my full tax bill on time. The safe harbor rule is to pay at least 100% of last year's tax liability (110% if your prior year AGI was over $150k) through withholding and estimated payments combined. Worth calculating this if you're having a good year on prediction markets!
This is such an important point that often gets overlooked! I learned this the hard way too. What makes it tricky with prediction markets is that your profits can be really lumpy - you might have a huge win in one quarter and losses in another, making it hard to estimate what you'll owe for the year. I've started setting aside about 25% of my net Kalshi profits each quarter in a separate savings account earmarked for taxes. Even if I don't end up owing quarterly payments, at least I have the money ready when tax time comes. Better to have the IRS owe me a refund than the other way around! For anyone just getting started with prediction markets, definitely factor this into your trading strategy. Those underpayment penalties can eat into your profits pretty quickly.
Great point about the quarterly payments! I wish someone had told me this before I started trading on Kalshi. I had a similar experience - made about $12K in profits last year and got hit with a $250 underpayment penalty because I didn't realize I needed to make estimated payments. What's really tricky is that prediction market profits can be so unpredictable. You might crush it in Q1 with some political events, then have losses in Q2-Q3, then another big win in Q4. Makes it nearly impossible to estimate what you'll owe until the year is over. I've started using the "110% of last year's tax" safe harbor approach that @Abby Marshall mentioned - it s'the most conservative but at least I know I won t'get penalized. Anyone know if there are any tools or calculators specifically designed for handling estimated taxes with volatile income like prediction markets?
For those asking about quarterly estimated tax tools - I've been using the IRS Form 1040ES worksheet but modified it for prediction market income volatility. What I do is calculate my estimated annual tax liability based on my regular income, then add 25-30% buffer for potential Kalshi profits. The key insight I learned is that you can adjust your quarterly payments throughout the year as your prediction market performance becomes clearer. If you overpaid in Q1-Q2 because you estimated too high, you can reduce Q3-Q4 payments accordingly. The IRS just cares that your total payments meet the safe harbor threshold by year end. One practical tip: I track my running net Kalshi profits monthly and recalculate my quarterly payment needs. This way I'm never surprised by a huge underpayment penalty. The annualized income installment method (Form 2210 AI) can also help if your income is really uneven throughout the year - it lets you match your quarterly payments to when you actually earned the income. The 110% safe harbor rule has saved me from penalties even in years when my prediction market income was all over the place.
This is really helpful! I'm just getting into prediction markets and made my first decent profit last month ($800 on some election contracts). I had no idea about the quarterly payment requirements - I thought I could just pay everything when I file my return like I do with my regular job. The monthly tracking approach makes a lot of sense, especially since my Kalshi activity has been pretty sporadic. Some months I don't trade at all, others I might have a few big wins. Would you recommend setting up a separate bank account just for the tax money, or is tracking it in a spreadsheet sufficient? Also, when you mention the "annualized income installment method" - is that something a regular person can figure out, or do you need an accountant for that? I'm trying to stay on top of this before I get in too deep with prediction market trading.
Back in 2022, I had an unemployment overpayment of $4,200 that was going to be offset from my taxes. I found out that Texas has specific exemptions for people experiencing homelessness with dependents. I had to provide a letter from the shelter I was staying at and copies of my children's documentation. They reduced my overpayment by 80% and set up a $25/month payment plan for the rest. The key was getting it all submitted before the Treasury Offset Program certification date, which happens in early February for most states.
This is incredibly helpful information. I'm going to ask about the specific exemption for homeless families when I call. Thank you for sharing your experience!
Thank you for the detailed timeline. Knowing about that February certification date is crucial - I need to move fast!
I went through this exact same nightmare when I was homeless with my two kids in Houston. Here's what saved me: Call TWC at 800-939-6631 early morning (7 AM sharp) and ask for the "Collections Department" specifically. Don't get transferred around - insist on collections. Tell them you need an "Emergency Hardship Waiver" due to homelessness with minor children. They have a form called TWC-175 that most people don't know about. I got mine processed in 8 days and they waived 100% of my $3,100 overpayment. Also, if you're staying at a shelter, get a letter on letterhead from them TODAY - this carries more weight than you'd think. The woman who helped me said homeless families with kids get priority review. Don't give up, the system actually does work if you know exactly what to ask for.
called them yesterday and the lady said there experiencing delays due to high volume rn. might take up to 14 business days smh
Been waiting on my Kansas refund for 12 days now and starting to get worried. Filed electronically on Jan 28th, got accepted same day, but still nothing in my account. Called their hotline twice and just got the generic "processing takes 7-14 business days" message. Really hoping it shows up soon since I need it for some bills. Anyone else experiencing longer delays this year?
Just a heads up, I was having the same issues with TaxAct but found that it works if you use Microsoft Edge in InPrivate mode. Something about their scripts conflicts with certain browser extensions. Not ideal but might help if you're stuck with them and can't get a refund.
Does this fix the support page too? I still need to get a refund since I already paid for Premium which doesn't even work.
It did partially fix the support page for me - I could at least access it, though submitting forms was still hit or miss. For refunds, I had better luck calling their billing department directly at 319-373-3600 and selecting the billing option. Took about 25 minutes on hold, but I eventually got through to someone who processed my refund. The support page seems to be completely broken, but their phone systems still work.
This is why I never pay for tax software until I'm ready to file. I always use the free version to input everything, then only upgrade at the very end if I need to. That way if there are issues, I haven't spent any money yet. TaxAct worked fine for me last year but I'm avoiding them this year after seeing so many complaints.
Smart approach. Which software are you using this year instead? I need to find an alternative to finish my returns.
I switched to FreeTaxUSA this year after all the TaxAct horror stories. It's been rock solid so far - no script errors, clean interface, and their support actually works. The free version handles most situations, and even their paid version is cheaper than TaxAct Plus. I was able to import my prior year data from TaxAct without any issues too.
Megan D'Acosta
This thread has been absolutely incredible! As a parent with a 7-year-old in Kumon math ($150/month), I initially came here feeling defeated about these expenses. But wow - the collective wisdom shared here has completely transformed my understanding of what's possible. What amazes me most is how everyone moved beyond just accepting "it's not deductible" to exploring creative solutions. @Connor Rupert's success finding $150/month in employer benefits, @Natalia Stone's medical documentation approach for ADHD, and @Emily Sanjay's multi-pronged strategy have given me a complete roadmap to follow. I'm particularly motivated by @Selena Bautista's experience with reading disorders and @Rhett Bowman's detailed IRS documentation advice. My daughter has been showing some concerning patterns with number recognition that might warrant evaluation - not just for potential tax benefits, but for her educational future. Starting Monday, I'm calling HR about dependent care programs and scheduling a pediatric consultation. The way this community has turned a simple tax question into comprehensive financial planning strategies is exactly why parent networks are so powerful. Special thanks to @Anastasia Kozlov for the professional tax insights and everyone who shared their real-world experiences. You've all proven that with persistence and creative thinking, there are often solutions hiding in plain sight. This discussion should be bookmarked by every parent dealing with education expenses!
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Elijah Brown
ā¢@Megan D'Acosta - Welcome to the community! Your enthusiasm after reading through this discussion is exactly what makes these conversations so valuable. It's wonderful to see how you've absorbed all the different strategies and are ready to take immediate action with both HR and pediatric consultations. Your mention of concerning patterns with number recognition definitely sounds worth investigating, especially given the success others have had with medical documentation for math-related learning differences. Early identification can make such a huge difference for both educational support and potential financial benefits. This thread really has become an amazing resource guide - from @Connor Rupert s'immediate employer benefits success to the detailed medical documentation experiences shared by @Natalia Stone, @Selena Bautista, and @Rhett Bowman. The professional insights from @Anastasia Kozlov combined with everyone s real-world'experiences create exactly the kind of comprehensive support that families need when navigating these complex situations. I love your point about this demonstrating why parent networks are so powerful. When we share our experiences and creative solutions, we can transform seemingly dead-end situations into multiple actionable pathways. Your proactive Monday morning plan is going to set you up for success - and hopefully your experience will help other parents who find this discussion in the future! Looking forward to hearing how your HR call and pediatric consultation go. This supportive community has been such a game-changer for making education expenses more manageable!
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Tami Morgan
This thread has been such an incredible resource! As a new community member dealing with nearly identical expenses - my 10-year-old has been in Kumon math for 8 months at $160/month - I'm blown away by how everyone transformed what seemed like a simple "no deduction available" situation into multiple actionable strategies. What really resonates with me is @Emily Sanjay's multi-pronged approach and how @Connor Rupert immediately took action to discover that $150/month employer benefit. That kind of proactive thinking is exactly what I needed to see! I've been so focused on federal tax deductions that I never considered employer dependent care programs or the medical documentation pathway. My son has been struggling with math concepts in ways that align with several experiences shared here, particularly @Natalia Stone's description of ADHD-related learning challenges. Reading through @Rhett Bowman's detailed IRS documentation experience and @Anastasia Kozlov's professional guidance has given me confidence to pursue a proper evaluation. I'm starting this week by: 1) Calling HR about any family support benefits, 2) Scheduling a consultation with our pediatrician about learning assessments, and 3) Beginning to document my son's progress and challenges as suggested throughout this thread. Thank you all for proving that persistence and community knowledge-sharing can uncover solutions where none seemed to exist. This discussion should be required reading for any parent dealing with significant education expenses!
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